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Friday, May 22, 2009
Recession Over??
This article discusses one economist who says yes.
Recession has hit the bottom and is now leveling off. There is moderate turnaround in the stock market, some signs of home buying and employment. Many consumers are still optimistic about the future due to the jobs lost, unemployment and foreclosures. Therefore due to fear consumers are spending less and buying only what is necessary.
I find this article very interesting. I really hope Robert Gordon is right. It does not seem that he is after watching the news every night and hearing about the mass closures of automotive dealerships. I personally like statistical based conclusions and I do think Robert Gordon has something here.
I agree with Gordon and really hope that he is right as well. It's hard for Americans to see when we are still dealing with layoffs and bad times. Even though the recession may be drawing to a close, it can still take years for conditions to improve and be back to a better place. Companies are still going to be very budget conscience and may hold off on hiring more people as long as possible or until they are confident that things are turning around. I really hope that this is good news. I thank the Lord everyday that I still have a job. It is so hard to see people around you struggling!
As a student of finance, I can appreciate the information contained in a moving averages graph. The moving averages provides the fluctuations you do not normally see when you are looking a raw data comparison. It gives you the ability to pinpoint usually with precise accuracy what happened to make the average fluctuate.
One category does not determine if we are in a recession and one category does not determine if we are out of a recession. I do appreciate and understand his position. His statistics to back up his theory seem credible. One item concerns me regarding his data, what about all those individuals who can no longer receive unemployment claims, how are they being counted?
As we all know, unemployment claims do not go on indefinitely and once you have exhausted all funds available to you, you are no longer counted as an individual receiving a claim. This does not mean you are working; it just means you are not collecting unemployment. As a society, how do we accurately track those statistics?
As I continue to see reductions in work forces, workers being forced to take unpaid time off to retain their jobs, job sharing to maintain a job, companies putting projects on hold until the credit begins to flow again, I can appreciate his theory however I believe the individuals being hardest hit by this recession will disagree.
Recession has hit the bottom and is now leveling off. There is moderate turnaround in the stock market, some signs of home buying and employment. Many consumers are still optimistic about the future due to the jobs lost, unemployment and foreclosures. Therefore due to fear consumers are spending less and buying only what is necessary.
ReplyDeleteI find this article very interesting. I really hope Robert Gordon is right. It does not seem that he is after watching the news every night and hearing about the mass closures of automotive dealerships. I personally like statistical based conclusions and I do think Robert Gordon has something here.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Gordon and really hope that he is right as well. It's hard for Americans to see when we are still dealing with layoffs and bad times. Even though the recession may be drawing to a close, it can still take years for conditions to improve and be back to a better place. Companies are still going to be very budget conscience and may hold off on hiring more people as long as possible or until they are confident that things are turning around. I really hope that this is good news. I thank the Lord everyday that I still have a job. It is so hard to see people around you struggling!
ReplyDeleteAs a student of finance, I can appreciate the information contained in a
ReplyDeletemoving averages graph. The moving averages provides the fluctuations
you do not normally see when you are looking a raw data comparison. It
gives you the ability to pinpoint usually with precise accuracy what
happened to make the average fluctuate.
One category does not determine if we are in a recession and one
category does not determine if we are out of a recession. I do
appreciate and understand his position. His statistics to back up his
theory seem credible. One item concerns me regarding his data, what
about all those individuals who can no longer receive unemployment
claims, how are they being counted?
As we all know, unemployment claims do not go on indefinitely and once
you have exhausted all funds available to you, you are no longer counted
as an individual receiving a claim. This does not mean you are working;
it just means you are not collecting unemployment. As a society, how do
we accurately track those statistics?
As I continue to see reductions in work forces, workers being forced to
take unpaid time off to retain their jobs, job sharing to maintain a
job, companies putting projects on hold until the credit begins to flow
again, I can appreciate his theory however I believe the individuals
being hardest hit by this recession will disagree.
Vicki Mendoza