Probably the best way to track the effectiveness of the speech is via approval ratings and surveys that ask voters whether they approve of the Obama plan or the way he is handling health care reform.
Did we see any movement one way or the other when comparing the numbers for today versus the numbers for yesterday.
Rasmussen tracks presidential approval by comparing Obama's strongly approve ratings with his strongly disapprove numbers. According to the Rasmussen, 33% of all voters survey strongly approve of the president's job Performance while 41% disapprove. This means his overall rating for September 10Th is -8 which is unchanged from September 9Th.
Additionally, 44% of all voters surveyed approve of his health care reform package while 53% disapprove.
At this point, the speech appears to have made little impact with voters. Of course, Democratic members of Congress were a target group of the speech as well. The speech may have swayed them. Also, it is important to note that opinions may change as the media forms a consensus message of failure or success. This could take a few days to crystallize
Rasmussen
NPR covered the topic on my drive in to work this morning. I was surprised at how many people where swayed by the speach. Every person I heard said it moved them in favor of the health care plan. In closing, the commentator announced that he was at a diner in the blue state of Indiana. At work, the discussion swayed more toward the 53% against.
ReplyDeleteCoty Smith
It suggests that we are swayed by rhetoric as much as policy content, and that the politics of the moment is made to be a larger measure than it should. Should we really speak of the effectiveness of any speech as what happens in the immediate aftermath of polling?
ReplyDeleteI can fondly remember the days when "public opinion polls" were not so numerous and given much less weight. Focus was usually on content and the substance of a speech. It seems like now the watercooler discussions revolve around "Hannity" said this or "Cooper" said that and more about what someone else thinks than what our individual thoughts are.
ReplyDeleteMax Brewington
First, Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Indiana since 1964. It is considered to be solid red which only helps illuminate how poorly the prior election cycle was for the GOP.
ReplyDeletePhillip, are you saying that the immediate effect of a speech will only have a marginal long-term impact on the issue or is this another example of the shallow nature of electoral politics.
Max, I think the substance of political rhetoric has never been as important to the media as the spectacle. In my opinion, the problem is more pronounced today thanks to the endless number of pundits and experts who feel obliged to engage in combative, provocative screaming in hopes of getting more attention.
Rob,
ReplyDeleteAs to the first, With some notable exceptions, yes, and as to the second, you betcha.
Obama’s health care program is very risky. I know that something needs to be done in our health plan, but Obama’s health plan is not the way.
ReplyDeleteMy question is where will he get the money for this health plan?
This health plan is unrealistic!
Carmen Brewer
Obama's Healthcare Plan has been on everyone's mind. It is all over the news and everyone has his/her opinion on whether we need a change. It is valid to say that our healthcare system could use a bit of reform, but at the expense of all the hardworking Americans? Do we really need to take more from our hard earned dollar to fund a social system?
ReplyDeleteThis makes me wonder, who are all the uninsured Americans anyhow? Should we change an entire system only for a mere possible 15 million people? Sure there may be 47 million people that are uninsured, but if you subtract all those that qualify for Medicaid/CHIP but have not applied and those that make over $75,000 a year but won’t purchase their own health insurance, we are left with a small percentage that need healthcare insurance. But then again, if you really look at it—all those that do not have insurance do have access to quality healthcare at the county hospitals and this is already paid for by our tax dollars.
Truly, I believe as Christians we are to help those in need. On the other hand, when there is already a system that is in place that I help fund because I pay my taxes I don’t believe I should have to do more when, in my opinion, they don’t do anything to help themselves.
I can agree that a true look at the public’s opinions when it comes to polls can change quickly. The heat of the moment can cause votes to be swayed in one direction of another and there is no doubt that the media can also cause a sway; having said that, I don’t fully disregard them either. What I find interesting about public polls, and what keeps me willing to look and see what the public may think and feel is that they are one of the few areas we can get still get a since of participatory democracy. How else can one see if the opinions of others are flowing towards ones own personal opinion or not? While I would not stake my complete opinion of success or failure on a poll, I would not completely disregard it either. As they say, “where there’s smoke there’s fire.” If there is in fact strong percentage of opinion leaning in one direction, that consistently remains there, then there is more then likely some bases of truth in what the numbers are showing.
ReplyDeleteIn the case of health care I tend to believe the 53% associated with disapproval is more reflective of truth then not. From what I personally see and hear, there is much dissention on this topic and it is not agreed to by the majority of those I come in contact with. Denise the question of percentage of folks that this will be targeted for is a fair one. I would be interested in seeing any studies you may have seen that actually support your theory of a small percent that this would address. Although I can’t speak to rather or not we would be helping those that won’t help them selves, I can say I agree that we can’t afford this in our government right now. I am in disagreement with public health care for this fact alone. We have a higher debt then we have ever seen in our history; it would be like me maxing all of my credit cards out applying for more, and leaving my children with the bill. I also feel it puts our government one step closer to acting as a financially driven corporation as no one invests in anything without the expectations of a return. There is potentially millions of dollars to be made in this endeavor, and where that kind of money exists, ethics and conflicts of interest can and will come into question and this is a position I feel our government has no right to place themselves into.
I agree with other post stating that Obamas plan is very risky. With the great big glaring unanswered question of where is the money going to come from. Reform is very much needed but not in a way that seems to support complete government take over of the health care system. From what I have seen of other models of government run health care systems they seem to have more negatives then positive so I don't think it is the right answer. I think major private insurance reform is the answer though and the parts of the presidents plan that address this part of are health care crises I approve of
ReplyDeleteHow much power does the media possess to sway the American people? I dare say that the response of the American people, and the way that the percentages change, comes in large part due to the massive influence of the media on the way that people think in this country. There is so little pre-reflective thought given to most issues, and for that matter, so little thought given at all. Most of these talk shows reflect the way that most Americans think about the true substance of the speeches: it's all knee-jerk reactions to things that typically they have already made up their minds about. Most people will not be swayed by the smooth rhetoric of an Obama speech simply because those who are in disagreement with his stances will remain defiantly the same.
ReplyDeleteThe most glaring example of this bias towards Obama comes after his impressive speech to the school children of this country. Many staunch republicans dismissed this speech as mere "liberal democratic propaganda", when in reality, his speech had many hints of the conservative party. Here's a response on a blog that I found very interesting about this speech: http://stillsearching.wordpress.com/2009/09/09/obamas-conservative-speech/
Here's an excerpt:
"Sean Hannity claimed that “it seems very close to indoctrination,” while Fox News commentator Monica Crowley said “just when you think this administration can’t get any more surreal and Orwellian, here they come to indoctrinate our kids”; similarly, Michelle Malkin claimed that “the left has always used kids in public schools as guinea pigs and as junior lobbyists for their social liberal agenda.”
Maybe I’m missing something, but a careful read of Obama’s speech reveals that it is far from a propagandistic sales pitch for the social liberal agenda. On the contrary; It’s actually borderline conservative. Why? Because the point of the speech is personal responsibility. Obama makes it clear that we all have circumstances that make achievement difficult. We have absentee fathers (Obama talks about his own), poverty, prejudice, and a whole battery of other challenges that make success in life difficult. But they are all excuses. Here’s something Obama said in the speech:"
"But at the end of the day, the circumstances of your life – what you look like, where you come from, how much money you have, what you’ve got going on at home – that’s no excuse for neglecting your homework or having a bad attitude. That’s no excuse for talking back to your teacher, or cutting class, or dropping out of school. That’s no excuse for not trying."
- Scott Carpenter
I am amazed by the number of people who were not swayed by the speech. More and more people I come in contact with on daily basis are disapproving of the President's plan.
ReplyDeleteScott, I agree with you that media has a large influence on people in this country. I know people who will belive what a talk show host says without knowing any of the facts.
This whole health care debate is wearing me out!!! To be quite honest I am very cynical about the whole thing. At the end of the day, the democrats have the house, and a good portion of the senate, Then on top of all of that you have the Republicans who are Republicans by name only in both the house and the senate. So if Barack Obama WANTED to pass a bill, he will get it passed, he has the majority that he needs. Every bill that he has wanted passed thus far, has been passed. No matter how much arguing and debating that has been done, "On behalf of the people," has prevented an unwanted bill from being passed. Barack Obama came into office with an agenda, and he was very vocal about what he wanted to do, so at the end of the day, while part of me sincerely hopes this bill will fail, my gut knows it will pass. Polls mean nothing, there are polls that say the president's speech boosted him twelve points, from 42% to 55% by the next morning, then there are polls that say the speech affected him very little or not at all, so if you are looking for a poll to say that the speech did him no good, you will find it, and if you are looking for a poll that says it helped, you will find it as well.
ReplyDeleteFunny how things can be so deeply affected by the media...I believe it is a terrible sign to the overall ignorance the general public lives in. Opinions, whatever they may be, or not usually based on any form of fact, so the media can implement it's own 'facts' to prove it's agenda.
ReplyDelete